Property News :
(Reuters reported) - U.S. commercial real estate investors may have to wait until next year to see their returns start to grow, as returns will likely remain in negative territory this year, according to the research arm of real estate services company CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.

"The worst is behind us because (values) won't be dropping as fast," Serguei Chervachidze, CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE-EA) Capital Markets economist told Reuters. "That translates into total returns as well."

The greatest declines probably occurred in the third-quarter 2009, although fourth-quarter returns are not yet available, he said.

CBRE-EA based its forecasts on the NCREIF Property Index, compiled by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, an industry group representing pension fund investors and advisers. The index calculates total rates of quarterly returns based on a very large pool of privately held commercial real estate properties.

So far, total returns -- net operating income plus the change of the value of a portfolio of property over a year -- have fallen by double digits since the peak levels seen near the end of 2007.

For U.S. office properties, total returns since then have fallen 23 percent, for warehouse and distribution centers returns have fallen 21 percent. Retail property returns are down 15 percent so far, and apartment building returns are down 23 percent, according to the NCREIF index.

Using the index, CBRE-EA said that returns, under its most likely scenario, should remain negative throughout 2010 and turn 3 percent to 11 percent positive in 2011.

It sees values ultimately falling 30 percent to 53 percent from the peak in the last quarter of 2007. Factoring in the slide since then, values are about one-third to halfway there.

Stronger, positive income returns from rents generated by commercial property should mitigate somewhat property value declines this year, CBRE-EA said.

Capitalization or "cap" rates, which move inversely to prices, are expected to rise another 0.60 to 1.0 percentage point into mid 2011, CBRE-EA projects under its base-case forecast. Currently cap rates for office properties are about 6.35 percent, 6.96 percent for warehouse and distribution centers, 6.54 percent for retail properties and 5.39 percent for apartment buildings.

It see cap rates slowly falling -- or values slowing rising -- to 2005 and 2006 levels by 2012.
(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; Editing Bernard Orr)

Property News: TEMPO Interactive reported - When the real estate business hit hard by the global crisis earlier this year, even some analysts and business leaders optimistic property in 2010, this sector will rise again. "For the monetary authorities plan to continue lowering mortgage rates and KPA. I predict in 2010 the real estate business will 'boom' again, "said Director of PT Lippo Tbk, Jopy Rush in February 2009. According to the trend seen from the data that says Global Property Guide, the 2008 level of property investment growth in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's highest, namely 13.4%.

Similar stated principal property agents Property Abie, Abie, who predicted in 2010 primary and secondary property markets of Indonesia will rise again, especially those located strategically and full amenities. It turned cloudy due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States earlier this year, gradually recovered. Do not forget, people's purchasing power in 2010 will be strengthened. Meanwhile, the government pegged the BI Rate still 6.5%, so mortgage rates will be affordable.

Senior Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Nasution said the 2009 growth is around 4 to 4.5%. This figure is better than the previous forecast of only 3.5 to 4%. "While in 2010, the central bank forecasts economic growth of 5% - 5.5%," said Nasution at the Investor Summit and Capital Market Expo 2009, Wednesday (2 / 12).

The property sector is predicted to jauuh 2010 also improved by the Executive Director of Cushman & Wakefield, Arif Rahardjo, when referring to a number of economic indicators, particularly interest rates. "SBI until the end of the year fell to about 4.46% and still going down in 2010," said business and financial consultant in Jakarta, Thursday (17/12). It was supported by the government's target is optimistic for economic growth, exchange rate stable, and more importantly the ability suppress inflation.

Optimism will be the condition of the property business in 2010 will be sunny, also swelled from Juan Wijaya Panca, General Manager of PT Fajar Surya Perkasa, developers Daan New Mogot. "Now the shortage of homes has reached 8.6 million units. Each year the needs of the house was 800 thousand units, but supplies only 200-300 thousand units, "said Juan. This shortfall, because of limited land, the options are flats or apartments.

Increased well-educated workforce and executives in Jakarta also make housing needs continue to increase. They need shelter close to the office, so the options are flats or apartments. Price premium apartments in central locations, such as in the region Thamrin, Salemba, S Parman and Kemayoran is more affordable, than the expensive time in a super busy metropolitan life. Apartment dwellers have more quality time and enjoy life as it is very close to the knot of daily activity, so free from congestion, stress and waste of fuel.

Residents walking distance, easy to reach the office, as well as lifestyle amenities of life and self-contained, such as shopping centers, business and entertainment, offices, a five-star hotel, city infrastructure, dozens of public transport routes and means of busway and monorail. Market rent is fat and delicious as well as at the center of international business activities, making the apartments more and more in demand this year.

According to the Supreme Wirajaya, Marketing Manager of PT Jakarta Realty, Apartment Thamrin Residences are built targeting the middle market managers and executives who work in Sudirman, Thamrin and Kuningan. Price per unit of his apartment as of April 2009 starting USD 290 million to $ 900 million, the least expensive compared to similar projects in the same location.

But according to Oka M Kauripan, Director of LJ Hooker Indonesia, most prospective house landed in 2010. "The trend continues to increase sales. Moreover, the people of Indonesia, is still rather stay at home leafs, "said Oka. All opinions are valid, depending on the purpose of buying property. What is certain in 2010, prospects bright occupancy. "Compared to the 2009, 2010 more good prospects, such as 2007," said Oka. Mainly supported the exchange rate more stable. In addition to residential, properties for office space will also be bright, especially for rental. "Proven 40% of revenues, LJ Hooker obtained from here," said Oka.

Not only occupancy, demand for shophouses are also quite interesting. According to Oka and Juan, all depending on their location. In some areas that have been living, demand for shophouses quite strong. "For example, on Boulevard Kelapa Gading, here there are still many who need the shop while the supply is limited," said Oka. While Juan rate, the demand for shophouses usually from investors. "When people's purchasing power could also increase his sales."

When the right real estate business prospects in 2010 grew quite bright, spreading everywhere? "The choice is still around Greater Jakarta. For apartments and flats yes in Jakarta, while the house landed on the outskirts. "Another area that is prospective is Banjarmasin, Balikpapan, Surabaya and Medan. In Central Java, Juan saw the growth of magnetic properties in Yogyakarta and Solo. "It's just growing quite well, are the property of Solo. Here, supported by the textile industry and tourism. "

When the process of global economic recovery strengthened, with driven by China in Asia, the impact is quite good for Indonesia. The property sector, especially residential will become the locomotive of economic growth in Indonesia. Given this sector provides a considerable impact for other supporting sectors in the real estate business. Time to re-invest in property.